Navigating Uncharted Waters
A social climate of uncertainty provides fertile ground for conspiracy theories. Pandemics, for example, are predictably unpredictable—no one can say with certainty when one might begin, when it would end, or how long it might last. Combined with political and economic instability, a public health crisis like COVID-19 is rocket fuel for conspiracies. Under conditions of uncertainty, any information, even rumors, that helps direct negative emotions toward a specific target is psychologically comforting—it helps people manage their fear and anxiety. What if that target is your principal, a powerful business person, political figure, celebrity or high-wealth individual, who unwittingly becomes a central figure in an elaborate conspiracy theory due to their publically-known views, financial activities or associations?

Good information, bad information, disinformation and rumors all now move at light speed in the age of instant global communication made possible through mobile devices and social media platforms. Conspiracies can quickly evolve and expand exponentially online and in the media. Such storylines often point to the existence of secret plots by powerful actors working behind the scenes, the “Deep State,” for example, either to cause real chaos or to fabricate it. The anger felt toward these “powerful actors” can be accompanied by an intense need to intervene, increasing the likelihood that someone will take action, possibly involving the use of violence. Operators need to understand this changing landscape and appreciate the risk posed by a “true believer” of one or more interrelated conspiracy theories.

Paranoia and Violence Potential
Paranoia is an established risk indicator for targeted violence; that is not news. The individual or group who is convinced that your principal presents an imminent risk to their individual or collective safety or survival may act pre-emptively to protect themselves, or others they believe are in danger. Many instances of violence have been motivated by paranoia; some have been fatal. Paranoia can be a character trait or a symptom of a mental health disorder and a byproduct of substance abuse. Someone who is paranoid harbors excessive distrust, without justification, and may believe that sinister plots are swirling around them. Sometimes paranoid people feel compelled to use violence to stop a threat, real or perceived.

When speaking with a paranoid individual or assessing the risk of targeted violence, it is often apparent that the individual of concern is a “true believer,” with no doubt in their mind about the correctness and urgency of their views.  While their description of the conspiracy against them may seem odd, even bizarre to others, the paranoid person is thoroughly convinced that it is real and often presents examples or evidence supporting their beliefs. It can be difficult and frustrating to try to reason with someone whose beliefs range from extreme to delusional or to try to refute their evidence, especially if hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of others, support the same conspiracy theory.

In a poll conducted in September 2020 for a U.K.-based anti-racism advocacy group, “Hope not hate, Ltd.”, more than one-third of Americans thought it possible that Hollywood elites, government and the media were secretly engaging in large scale child trafficking and abuse. These views, along with the belief that the same elite group of Satan-worshipping, child-trafficking pedophiles rules the world, form the core beliefs of QAnon. QAnon is a fringe conspiracy theory that in 2019 the FBI labelled a domestic terror threat, stating that such conspiracy theories can encourage both groups and individuals to carry violent acts targeting specific people, places, and organizations.

QAnon is just one of many conspiracy theories that have blossomed in the current climate of uncertainty and fear.

QAnon: A Brief Background
On October 28, 2017, a user on the 4chan website calling themselves “Q” posted a series of cryptic messages saying that they worked in a key position in the U.S. federal government with a high-level security clearance and have access to classified information about the “deep state” that they would covertly disclose to inform the public about the crimes of the elites.  While some followers believe that “Q” is, in fact, a high-ranking government insider, others claim that they are John F. Kennedy Jr. who faked his death or that it is former U.S. President, Donald Trump himself.

Through more than 4,000 subsequent “Q-drops”, the author or authors of these posts crafted an intricate conspiratorial theory linking together issues ranging from anti-Semitisms to the death of George Floyd, 5G, vaccines, and immigrants. The QAnon belief system holds that the “Deep State,” also referred to as “the Cabal” controls not only the U.S. government, but all world governments, the banking system, the Catholic Church, the agricultural and pharmaceutical industries, as well as the media and the entertainment industry, all in an effort keep people ignorant, poor, and enslaved.

QAnon is not a group per se, but rather a loose affiliation of adherents who believe Q’s claims that liberal elites are pursuing global domination through ritualistic child sacrifice to harvest their blood to produce a psychedelic drug called adrenochrome, from which they derive their power. As the conspiracy theory has evolved, the supply of adrenochrome has become linked to the coronavirus pandemic.

While QAnon has its strongest following in the U.S., UK, Canada and Australia, there is evidence of QAnon activity in 75 countries. To date, most QAnon activity has occurred on the web on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter, as well as in the less policed 4Chan and 8Chan spaces.

QAnon theories were both promoted by and directed at a number of celebrities, which has helped keep the ideas in the news. What began as a conspiracy theory quickly evolved into a specific religio-political ideology, in which the timeline from radicalization to mobilization can be very short, perhaps even just a few days.

Several recent cases, including the deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol,  demonstrate that many radicalized individuals have been extremists motivated by this ideology to commit violence. The insurgents on 6 January in Washington, DC, were literally calling for death to high-ranking political figures.

Conspiracy Theories, True Believers, and Violence
Conspiracy theories, in general, are unsubstantiated, less plausible alternatives to mainstream reality.  They typically hold that everything associated with a theory is intended with hostility and always malintent.  That means that it is easier to believe things that happen are intentional and are planned by someone with a sinister motive rather than by coincidence or chance. Our brains are hardwired to search for patterns, which in everyday life have helped us develop art, religion, language, and even the scientific method we use to study the human brain.

Unfortunately, because patterns are so convincing, we can be conned and exploited by others who construct activity patterns to lead us to the desired conclusion for their benefit. Powerful cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias, reinforce our ideas since we continue to seek additional evidence to support our beliefs, even after they have been disproven. And ego plays a role since it is human nature to want to seem smart and not be wrong.

When people experience an increased level of chaos or confusion, the brain goes into overdrive, seeking patterns that may help us deal with the unknown. If nothing else, 2020 was an extremely chaotic and confusing year marked by natural disasters, a dramatic increase in civil unrest, and of course, a deadly pandemic, as well as dramatic political upheaval and social division. If there was ever a time where people were desperate for certainty, it was 2020. So it is understandable that in the witch’s brew of current world events, people would try to seek meaning and understanding, even with evidence that that may otherwise seem farfetched.

Many adherents to conspiracy theories are “true believers,” some of who promote violence to foster a necessary sea change in society.  Violent true believers (VTBs) are those committed to a belief system that accepts or encourages violence as a legitimate means of advancing their goal.   They are convinced that their truth is absolute and that no acceptable alternatives exist.

Hard-core true believers motivated by deeply held, rigid beliefs feel wholly justified in using extreme means to achieve their goal. Such true believers can also seem paranoid and may have an irrational fear that others are plotting against them. They also often see themselves as warriors, willing to engage in battle against their perceived enemies. Once a true believer identifies a target, it can be tough to dissuade them; they can be extremely tenacious and creative in their drive to approach and harm or eliminate the person or people responsible for their grievance.

Pizzagate is one of the most well-known violent incidents involving the then-nascent QAnon movement. In 2016, a viral conspiracy theory claimed that presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton and American Democratic officials were running a child sex trafficking ring from the basement of a Washington-area pizzeria. A North Carolina man, attempting to rescue the children, fired a rifle inside the restaurant to break the lock on a door he believed lead to the basement dungeon.

The restaurant owner and staff also received death threats from conspiracy theorists. 

Mitigating the Risk of Conspiracy-driven Violence
Those serving in protective roles must keep their eyes on the ever-changing threat landscape, online and in real life. With more people indoors and on social media due to the on again-off again COVID-19 lockdowns, as well as ongoing political tensions, it is likely that conspiracy theories continue to spread and inspire violence. Knowing the basics about the workings of conspiracy theories and the terminology and beliefs of these movements can help operators recognize when someone is being led down the rabbit hole and possibly becoming a risk. Whether it is an insider threat posed by a true believer within a principal’s professional or social circles, or the rantings of someone in the blogosphere posting social media platforms, it will be important to understand the connection between the conspiracy-theorist’s worldview and the action imperative for followers to advance or defend their beliefs through the use of violence. Gaining an understanding of the complexity of conspiracy theories and their relationship to violence can help operators prevent violence inspired by extreme ideologies that may be directed at a principal identified by an actor radicalized in this type of toxic belief system.

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Conspiracy Theories Can Increase the Risk of Targeted Violence
By Steve Crimando

Steve Crimando is the founder and principal of Behavioral Science Applications LLC, an operational risk management consultancy based in the New York metropolitan area. He is a behavioral scientist focused on the human element in homeland and personal security. Mr. Crimando is a member of ASIS International, and the Association of Threat Assessment Professionals He is a Certified Threat Manager (CTM), Certified Homeland Protection Professional (CHPP), and a Board Certified Expert in Traumatic Stress (BCETS). With more than 30 years of experience in the field, Mr. Crimando was deployed to the 9/11 and 1993 World Trade Center attacks, as well as U.S. Northeast anthrax screening center and other acts of international terrorism. He is a published author who is frequently called upon by the media and the courts as an expert in the prevention and response to targeted violence. Mr. Crimando provides training and support to law enforcement, intelligence and military agencies, NGO’s, such as the United Nations, and private security firms worldwide.